Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 32 · Monday, August 3, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
The bull case wrote itself again: a Brazilian harvest that would not catch up and certified arabica stocks that kept melting. Exchange inventories fell to 274,168 bags by late July — the lowest since early February 2024 and barely a third of the 791,842 bags in warehouses a year earlier. With pickers running two to nine points behind schedule depending on the survey, the front of the ICE arabica (KC) curve stayed firm, changing hands around 316 cents/lb at the start of Week 32 after a violent recovery that took the market from a 2026 low near 239 cents in early June to the mid-350s in early July — the sharpest weekly rally in years. London robusta held near US$3,780/t, and a firm real kept a floor under Brazilian offers.
A front end that would not refill
The week distilled the season’s core fact: production forecasts were bearish, but deliverable coffee was scarce. The crop is a record — Conab official 66.7M bags (+18%), StoneX higher at 75.3M — yet a late harvest meant certified stocks kept draining and the curve stayed steeply inverted. After June’s washout to 239 cents, funds had rebuilt length on the tightness, leaving the market fast in both directions. The medium-term story pointed lower; the prompt reality kept the board firm. Until new coffee reached grading, scarcity won the day-to-day.
26/27 crop outlook
- Record crop, badly behind. Conab official 66.7M bags (conilon 20.9M); StoneX higher at 75.3M.
- Balance loosening. StoneX sees the 2026 global market moving toward surplus as Brazil and Vietnam expand.
- Harvest lag. Safras & Mercado had the crop running well behind the five-year pace, delaying deliverable supply.
- Quality mix softer. Winter rains raised the share of lower-grade coffee, firming fine-cup premiums (Safras).
Exports & logistics
Cecafé shipments were running near 3 million bags a month as new-crop volume slowly entered the pipeline, even with the harvest well behind schedule. The Port of Santos worked peak-season flows, with vessel scheduling and container availability the practical bottlenecks. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, giving buyers redundancy across all three of Brazil’s coffee gateways.
EUDR corner
The deadline stayed on the horizon. The EU Deforestation Regulation applies from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for small and micro enterprises; coffee sold into or exported from the EU must be proven deforestation-free after 31 December 2020, with plot-level geolocation and a due-diligence statement. Brazil’s exposure is large — the EU took 43.8% of Brazilian coffee exports in 2025 (17.56 million bags, ~US$7.1 billion, per Cecafé) — and Cecafé’s traceability platform is rolling out georeferencing accurate to 50 centimetres. With prompt stocks scarce and the deadline nearing, verified, documented lots are where scarcity and regulation meet. Rockmart delivers EUDR-ready coffee with the full documentation package from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
With the front end this thin and the tape this fast, expect sharp two-way moves. Watch the certified-stock line for any stabilisation as the harvest finally advances, the survey read on harvest pace (Safras), and the real — a firm BRL keeps the floor, while faster picking and grading is the clearest path to relieving prompt tightness.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is general market commentary for information only — not individualized investment, trading, legal or tax advice, and not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any futures, option, security or commodity. Rockmart Holdings is a physical green-coffee broker and is not registered as a CTA, CPO, FCM, IB or investment adviser with the CFTC, NFA or SEC. Figures are drawn from third-party sources believed reliable but not guaranteed (StoneX, Safras & Mercado, Cecafé, Conab); prices and opinions are as of the date shown and may change without notice. Trading futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results — do your own due diligence and consult your own licensed advisers before acting. This report is market information, not trading advice.