Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 32 · August 3, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
The week in one paragraph
The bull case wrote itself again this week: a Brazilian harvest that simply will not catch up, and ICE certified arabica stocks that keep melting. Exchange inventories fell to 274,168 bags by late July — the lowest since early February 2024 and barely a third of the 791,842 bags sitting in warehouses at the same point last year. With Brazil’s pickers running two to nine points behind schedule depending on whose survey you read, the front of the ICE arabica (KC) curve stayed firm, changing hands around 316 cents/lb at the start of Week 32 after a violent July recovery that took the market from a 2026 low near 239 cents in early June to the mid-350s in early July — the sharpest weekly rally since 2000. London robusta held near USD 3,780/tonne, and a firm real (USD/BRL ~5.08) gave Brazilian sellers little reason to chase the board lower. (Price levels reflect the start of Week 32; ICE and London are intraday markets and closes move quickly — confirm against a live feed before pricing.)
Harvest: late and getting later
The story of the season is timing, not size. Safras & Mercado put the 2026/27 harvest at 64% complete as of mid-July, against 77% a year ago and a five-year average of 70%. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest cooperative, reported its members at just 58.3% by July 24, versus 67.1% at the same stage last year. A dry, cool second half of July kept frost on the radar in the higher pockets of southern Minas Gerais during the early-morning hours, and while no damaging event has been confirmed, the combination of a slow pick and lingering cold-snap risk is exactly the cocktail that keeps the spec long engaged. Accumulated rainfall across southern Espírito Santo and Minas over the trailing two weeks has been minimal (roughly 5–10 mm), well below normal — helpful for drying beans on the patio, less helpful for the flowering that sets up the next crop.
26/27 crop outlook
- CONAB headline: 66.7 million bags, up ~18% year-on-year — on track to be the largest in CONAB’s historical series, eclipsing the 2020 record of 63.08 million.
- Arabica does the heavy lifting: 45.8 million bags, up ~28% on the on-year cycle.
- Conilon/robusta roughly flat at 20.9 million bags (+0.8%), with Espírito Santo past its biennial peak.
- The paradox of the season: a record crop on paper, yet a tape trading like a shortage — because the beans are still on the tree and off the boat.
Exports & logistics
Cecáfé’s most recent monthly print showed Brazil shipping 3.122 million bags in April, essentially flat (+0.6%) year-on-year in volume but with revenue down 17.7% to USD 1.109 billion as prices softened from their peaks. Year-to-date through April, shipments totalled 11.619 million bags, down 16.1% — a direct read-through of the delayed harvest starving the export pipeline of fresh coffee. The Port of Santos remained the undisputed gateway, handling roughly 80% of the country’s coffee exports (79.8% in the January–February tally, 81% in January alone). Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee out of Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, and with Santos this dominant, front-loading nominations and booking space early remains the sensible play into the back half of the crop year.
EUDR corner
No change to the clock, but the clock is now close enough to matter. Enforcement dates stand at December 30, 2026 for large and medium operators and June 30, 2027 for small and micro operators, following the targeted revision signed off late last year. Brussels left the door open to further simplification via its 2026 review, and downstream players have already won lighter obligations — but the core due-diligence and geolocation requirements for the operator placing coffee on the EU market are unchanged. With roughly five months to the first deadline, buyers should be finalising documentation packages now rather than in Q4. Rockmart’s origins ship with the full EUDR polygon and traceability package ready to hand over.
The week ahead
Watch three things. First, the harvest-progress prints from Safras and Cooxupé — another week of lagging numbers keeps the bid under the front month. Second, ICE certified stocks: any continued draw toward the 250k-bag area would be read as outright bullish, while a burst of gradings could take the froth off. Third, southern-Minas overnight temperatures — the frost window is narrowing but not shut. On the macro side, USD/BRL near 5.08 and the next Cecáfé export figure will frame how aggressively Brazilian sellers meet the market. Balance of risk still tilts higher until the pickers catch up and the beans reach the port.
Prepared by the Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is market information, not trading advice.