Brazil record crop is in the pipeline: Dec/26 arabica at 278.60, Brazilian farm-gate prices ~45c under Dec, ICE certified stocks up to 254,304 bags, EUDR-ready forward cover priced at a discount, and U.S. replacement cost now driven by logistics, not tariffs.
Conab confirms a record 67.6M-bag crop, Dec/26 arabica settles at 278.60 and the Dec/March switch narrows to 7.35c. ICE certified stocks rebound ~37,000 bags from a 27-year low, August exports hit a record 4.155M bags while Jan–Aug still trails 2025, and flowering rains shape the 2027 outlook.
StoneX: December arabica broke below 277 support to settle at 276.50 as the record crop finally reaches the exchange — certified stocks rose +14,408 bags to 247,887 while pending grading converts. All eyes now on Conab's third survey (Sep 24).
StoneX: December arabica settled Friday at 285.70c even as certified ICE stocks held near 2026 lows — because ~65,000 bags of mostly Brazilian coffee are now in pending grading, the Dec/March switch has eased, and Cecafé confirmed a record August (4.16M bags, +31%). Perception moved before the fundamentals.
Arabica broke below US$3.00/lb toward multi-month lows as record Brazilian crop estimates (71.9–75.9M bags) piled up — even as ICE certified stocks hit a fresh ~226k-bag low and robusta collapsed ~10.5% on a record conilon crop. EUDR's Dec 30 deadline looms.
ICE certified arabica stocks fell to roughly 228,000 bags — the lowest in years and nearing late-1990s levels — versus ~727,000 a year ago, keeping KC firm around 324 cents/lb even as Brazil wrapped up a record 2026/27 crop. USD/BRL near 5.19; EUDR enforcement holds at Dec 30, 2026.
The European Commission has clarified who does what across the coffee supply chain, eased downstream paperwork and added soluble coffee to the scope — but the EUDR deadlines hold: Dec 30, 2026 for large/medium operators, June 30, 2027 for micro/small. For the operator placing coffee on the EU market, full due diligence and geolocation stay intact.
Brazil's record 2026/27 harvest all but wraps up, yet ICE certified stocks near a late-2023 low and a 50% U.S. tariff keep arabica firm around 324 cents/lb. Conab sees a record 66.7M-bag crop; July exports rose 9.9% as robusta surged and arabica hit its weakest July since 2018.
ICE certified arabica stocks drained to roughly 244,000 bags — a two-and-a-half-year low — as Brazil closed in on the end of a late 2026/27 harvest (90% done vs 97% a year ago), keeping KC firm near 321 cents/lb even as profit-taking cooled a midweek spike above 335.
Arabica steadies near US$3.08-3.12/lb as ICE certified stocks bleed to a two-year low (~264k bags) and Brazil's late 26/27 harvest finally enters its final stretch. A firmer real (R$5.08) keeps producers sidelined, robusta exports hit a record, and EUDR enforcement counts down to Dec 30, 2026.