Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 31 · Monday, July 27, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
The frost scare that detonated a 16% single-session rally earlier in the month largely deflated, and arabica drifted back toward 310–311 c/lb (ICE KC settled near 310.75 c/lb on 23 July) as harvest-season selling and mid-month rain forecasts calmed the weather premium. But the floor stayed firm for one stubborn reason: certified ICE stocks collapsed to roughly 316,000 bags, the lowest in more than two years. A delayed Brazilian harvest, tight exchange inventory and a still-hot robusta complex kept the market coiled — softer on the screen, but structurally supported underneath.
Weather premium out, scarcity premium in
The week was a hand-off between two kinds of support. The frost premium bled away as rain forecasts landed and no damage materialised — a reminder that weather trades on probability, and the probability of loss had fallen. What remained was the harder floor: a physically starved front end. The crop ahead is a record — Conab official 66.7M bags (+18%), StoneX higher at 75.3M — but with the harvest barely half done and certified stocks at multi-year lows, deliverable coffee stayed scarce and the curve inverted. Funds trimmed the frost length while keeping a core long on the tightness.
26/27 crop outlook
- Late but heavy. Safras & Mercado put the harvest at 52% complete as of 1 July, behind last year and the five-year average.
- Record crop ahead. Conab official 66.7M bags (conilon 20.9M); StoneX higher at 75.3M.
- Frost risk fading. Rain forecasts eased the weather premium, though the June–August cold window kept traders alert.
- Quality watch. Wet-weather delays raised questions over bean quality in parts of the belt (Safras).
Exports & logistics
Cecafé reported Brazil exported 38.5 million bags in the 2025/26 crop year, down 15.7% on the prior season — the shrunken carry-out that left exchange inventory so thin heading into the new crop. Monthly shipments were running near 3 million bags as fresh coffee slowly entered the pipeline. The Port of Santos worked toward peak-season flows, with vessel scheduling and container availability the practical bottlenecks. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, giving buyers redundancy across all three of Brazil’s coffee gateways.
EUDR corner
The deadline stayed on the horizon. The EU Deforestation Regulation applies from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for small and micro enterprises; coffee sold into or exported from the EU must be proven deforestation-free after 31 December 2020, with plot-level geolocation and a due-diligence statement. Brazil’s exposure is large — the EU took 43.8% of Brazilian coffee exports in 2025 (17.56 million bags, ~US$7.1 billion, per Cecafé) — and Cecafé’s traceability platform is rolling out georeferencing accurate to 50 centimetres. With prompt stocks scarce and the deadline nearing, verified, documented lots are where scarcity and regulation meet. Rockmart delivers EUDR-ready coffee with the full documentation package from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
With the frost premium gone, the market leaned back on scarcity. Watch the certified-stock line for any further drawdown, the harvest pace as it accelerates (Safras), and the weather — the June–August cold window was not fully closed, and any new frost threat into so thin a front end could reignite the tape.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is market information, not trading advice.