Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 36 · Monday, August 31, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
The tightness story went from acute to historic. ICE certified arabica stocks fell to roughly 228,000 bags — the lowest in more than two years — against about 727,000 bags at the same point last year. That vanishing visible supply kept ICE arabica (KC) firm around 324 cents/lb, near its highest since January, even as Brazil finished bringing in a record 2026/27 crop. London robusta held near US$3,600/t, and a slightly softer real (USD/BRL ~5.19) gave Brazilian sellers a reason to meet the board. The paradox that has defined 2026 stayed in force: a record harvest on paper, a tape trading like a shortage.
A tape trading like a shortage
The market’s two timelines pulled hard against each other. On the bearish side, the crop is a record — Conab’s official estimate is 66.7M bags (+18%), StoneX runs higher at 75.3M, and the global balance is set to loosen. On the bullish side, none of that coffee was yet in the exchange’s warehouses: certified stocks kept draining, the curve stayed inverted, and roasters competed for prompt, well-documented lots. With visible supply this thin, the tape traded every shipping delay and quality question, and speculative length stayed reluctant to press the short despite the looming surplus. Production forecasts are not deliverable coffee — and until the new crop reached grading, scarcity set the price.
26/27 crop outlook
- Record crop, all but finished. Conab official 66.7M bags (conilon 20.9M); StoneX higher at 75.3M.
- Balance loosening. StoneX sees the 2026 global market tipping toward surplus as Brazil and Vietnam expand.
- Flowering ahead. Attention began shifting to the September–October rains that set the 2027 arabica crop, with El Niño risk on the radar.
- Quality mix softer. Safras & Mercado flagged winter rains raising the share of lower-grade coffee, firming fine-cup premiums.
Exports & logistics
The latest Cecafé data showed Brazil shipping 3.0 million bags in July, up 9.9% year on year, as new-crop volume began to move despite the late harvest — a signal that the pipeline was starting to fill even while certified stocks stayed scarce. The Port of Santos worked peak-season flows, with vessel scheduling and container availability the practical bottlenecks. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, giving buyers redundancy across all three of Brazil’s coffee gateways.
EUDR corner
The deadline drew closer. The EU Deforestation Regulation applies from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for small and micro enterprises; coffee sold into or exported from the EU must be proven deforestation-free after 31 December 2020, with plot-level geolocation and a due-diligence statement. Brazil’s exposure is large — the EU took 43.8% of Brazilian coffee exports in 2025 (17.56 million bags, ~US$7.1 billion, per Cecafé) — and Cecafé’s traceability platform is rolling out georeferencing accurate to 50 centimetres. With certified stocks at multi-year lows and the deadline nearing, verified, documented lots are where scarcity and regulation meet. Rockmart delivers EUDR-ready coffee with the full documentation package from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
The near-term question was whether record-crop selling could finally overwhelm a physically starved front end. Watch the certified-stock line for any sign of stabilisation as new-crop coffee reaches grading, the first Brazilian flowering rains (the main bull risk), and the real — a firmer BRL would slow producer selling and keep the board supported. With visible supply near historic lows, the burden of proof stayed with the bears.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is general market commentary for information only — not individualized investment, trading, legal or tax advice, and not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any futures, option, security or commodity. Rockmart Holdings is a physical green-coffee broker and is not registered as a CTA, CPO, FCM, IB or investment adviser with the CFTC, NFA or SEC. Figures are drawn from third-party sources believed reliable but not guaranteed (StoneX, Safras & Mercado, Cecafé, Conab); prices and opinions are as of the date shown and may change without notice. Trading futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results — do your own due diligence and consult your own licensed advisers before acting. This report is market information, not trading advice.