Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 36 · August 31, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
The week in one paragraph
The tightness story went from acute to historic. ICE certified arabica stocks fell to roughly 228,000 bags — the lowest in more than two years and, on some counts, closing in on levels not seen since the late 1990s — against about 727,000 bags at the same point last year. That vanishing visible supply kept ICE arabica (KC) firm around 324 cents/lb after the market touched its highest since January earlier in the run, even as Brazil finished bringing in a record 2026/27 crop. London robusta held near USD 3,600/tonne, and a slightly softer real (USD/BRL ~5.19) gave Brazilian sellers a reason to meet the board. The paradox that has defined 2026 is still in force: a record harvest on paper, a tape trading like a shortage. (Price levels reflect the week of August 31; ICE and London are intraday markets and closes move quickly — confirm against a live feed before pricing.)
Harvest: record crop, empty warehouses
Brazil’s 2026/27 pick is all but complete, running around 87–90% by late August and only marginally behind last year’s pace. The volume is not in question — this is a record crop — but it has still not translated into a rebuild of exchange-certified inventory, which is exactly why thin stocks keep doing the heavy lifting on price. Attention is now rotating to the weather that sets up the next cycle: with El Niño flagged by the likes of the FNC and Vicofa, irregular spring rains across Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo during September–October are the key swing factor for 2027/28.
26/27 crop outlook
- A record crop on paper — CONAB’s headline near 66.7 million bags would be the largest in its series, with private estimates ranging up toward 75 million.
- Arabica does the heavy lifting (~45.8 million bags), yet the record volume has not reached exchange warehouses — the beans are moving through the pipeline, not into certified stock.
- Stocks are the whole story: certified arabica near 228,000 bags versus ~727,000 a year ago is the single most bullish number on the screen.
- El Niño is the risk to the next crop, not this one — watch September–October flowering rains.
Exports & logistics
Cecafé’s most recent monthly print showed Brazil shipping 3.03 million bags of all coffee forms in July, up 9.9% year-on-year, but with arabica at its weakest July since 2018 (1.82 million bags, −8.9%) as robusta surged. The delayed pick and port bottlenecks remain the brake on faster growth, and the Port of Santos still handles roughly 75–80% of the country’s coffee exports. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee out of Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, and with Santos this concentrated, booking space early and front-loading nominations remains the sensible play into the back half of the crop year.
EUDR corner
The compliance clock is unchanged and now close enough to plan around precisely: December 30, 2026 for large and medium operators and June 30, 2027 for small and micro operators, with competent-authority enforcement already in force since June 30, 2026 at risk-tiered inspection rates of 1%, 3% and 9%. Brazil is classified standard-risk (a 3% inspection rate), and the due-diligence, geolocation and deforestation-free obligations sit with the operator placing coffee on the EU market. Rockmart’s origins ship with the full EUDR polygon and traceability package ready to hand over.
The week ahead
Watch three things. First, ICE certified stocks — any further slide toward the 220k area, and especially any print flirting with multi-decade lows, reads as outright bullish. Second, the year-end price debate: some desks now flag a pull toward US$3/lb if inventories ever rebuild, so the pace of gradings matters. Third, early-spring weather in Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, the first read on 2027/28. With USD/BRL near 5.19, a softer real tends to pull Brazilian selling into rallies. Balance of risk still leans firm while stocks stay this thin.
Prepared by the Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is market information, not trading advice.