Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 37 · Monday, September 7, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
Coffee kept trading the future over the present. Arabica slid toward multi-month lows, breaking back under the US$3.00/lb handle as the record-crop narrative pulled speculative length out of the complex. The move was about expectations, not demand: with Brazil’s harvest essentially in the bin and analysts pointing to a comfortable 2026/27 balance, funds kept trimming bullish bets. Yet the physical market stayed tight — certified ICE arabica stocks held near multi-year lows, a reminder that prompt, exchange-deliverable, EUDR-ready coffee was still genuinely scarce even as the screen sold the surplus. Robusta stayed heavy on the record Brazilian conilon crop.
Record crop versus tight stocks
The week’s tension was the one that has defined the market: abundant future supply against scarce nearby coffee. Conab’s official estimate puts the 2026 crop at a record 66.7 million bags (+18% on the year), while StoneX runs higher at 75.3 million and flags the global balance swinging toward surplus in 2026 as Brazil and Vietnam expand. But production forecasts are not deliverable coffee: certified stocks stayed near their lowest in years, the curve stayed inverted, and buyers kept competing for prompt, well-documented lots. Markets move on the probability of change — and with the new crop only beginning to reach port, the tightness that had underpinned prices had not yet loosened.
26/27 crop outlook
- Record crop confirmed. Conab official 66.7M bags (conilon 20.9M); StoneX higher at 75.3M.
- Surplus in view. StoneX sees the 2026 global balance tipping into surplus as Brazil and Vietnam lift output.
- Flowering window opening. September–October rains set the 2027 arabica crop; early-season showers were the first swing factor, with El Niño risk on watch.
- Quality mix softer. Safras & Mercado noted winter rains during the harvest raised the share of lower-grade coffee, firming premiums for fine-cup lots.
Exports & logistics
The latest Cecafé data showed the pipeline building: Brazil shipped 3.0 million bags in July, up 9.9% year on year, as new-crop volume started to move even with the harvest running late. The Port of Santos worked through peak-season flows, where vessel scheduling and container availability were the practical bottlenecks. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, giving buyers redundancy across all three of Brazil’s coffee gateways as the new crop reaches the coast.
EUDR corner
The clock kept ticking toward the deadline. The EU Deforestation Regulation applies from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for small and micro enterprises; coffee sold into or exported from the EU must be proven deforestation-free after 31 December 2020, with plot-level geolocation and a due-diligence statement. Brazil’s exposure is large — the EU took 43.8% of Brazilian coffee exports in 2025 (17.56 million bags, ~US$7.1 billion, per Cecafé) — and Cecafé’s traceability platform is rolling out georeferencing accurate to 50 centimetres. With certified stocks scarce and the deadline nearing, verified, documented lots are where scarcity and regulation meet. Rockmart delivers EUDR-ready coffee with the full documentation package from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
With the record crop largely priced, the balance of risk tilted back toward the weather: watch the Brazilian flowering rains (the fastest route higher), whether certified stocks finally stabilise as new-crop coffee reaches grading, and speculative positioning. A firmer Brazilian real would slow producer selling and lend the market a floor; a dry turn into the flowering peak was the clearest bull risk left on the board.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is general market commentary for information only — not individualized investment, trading, legal or tax advice, and not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any futures, option, security or commodity. Rockmart Holdings is a physical green-coffee broker and is not registered as a CTA, CPO, FCM, IB or investment adviser with the CFTC, NFA or SEC. Figures are drawn from third-party sources believed reliable but not guaranteed (StoneX, Safras & Mercado, Cecafé, Conab); prices and opinions are as of the date shown and may change without notice. Trading futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results — do your own due diligence and consult your own licensed advisers before acting. This report is market information, not trading advice.