Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 28 · Monday, July 6, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
The week in one paragraph
Arabica enters July trading near US$2.99–3.10/lb on ICE — levels not seen since March — supported by two converging forces: ICE certified stocks falling to 377,465 bags, the lowest since March 2024, and a Brazilian harvest running well behind schedule. For buyers, the message is simple: exportable supply of fresh 26/27 coffee will arrive later than usual, and differentials for prompt shipment are firming.
Harvest: rain is the story
Brazil’s harvest reached 44% complete as of June 24, versus 51% a year earlier and a five-year average of 47%. The culprit is exceptional rainfall — Somar Meteorologia recorded 31.3 mm in Minas Gerais in the week through June 28, roughly 20× the historical average for the period. Wet cherries mean slower picking, higher drying costs and increased risk of fermented cups in natural preparations. Buyers of fine cup naturals should build extra lead time into Q3 nominations.
26/27 crop outlook
- Arabica: Conab projects 45.7 million bags (+28% year on year) — a strong on-year rebound, with total Brazil production near 66 million bags.
- Conilon: estimated at 24.6–25.4 million bags, down 6–9% from the record 27 million of 25/26 — still historically high, but the direction matters for blenders.
- Frost watch: we are in the critical June–July window for Southern Minas, Cerrado, São Paulo and Paraná. Risk is assessed as lower this winter, but any cold front out of Argentina can move New York violently. We monitor daily.
Exports & logistics
Brazil shipped 11.6 million bags January–April, down 16.1% year on year, with April volume flat (+0.6%) but revenue down 17.7% on weaker prices. The Port of Santos handled ~75% of all shipments — concentration that rewards exporters with alternatives. Rockmart ships via Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, which matters most for Conilon flows out of Espírito Santo.
EUDR corner
The enforcement clock was reset: December 30, 2026 for large and medium operators; June 30, 2027 for small and micro. Do not read the delay as relief — supply-chain mapping takes 6–18 months, so coffee contracted for H2 2026 delivery into Europe should already carry farm-level geolocation and due-diligence documentation. All Rockmart supply ships EUDR-ready, with geodata and deforestation due diligence included. Compliance cost estimates across the industry run €0.10–0.50 per kg — negotiate who carries it before you fix differentials.
The week ahead
Watch: harvest progress vs. the rain forecast in Minas; ICE certified stock draws; BRL (trading near R$5.90/USD — a firmer real discourages producer selling); and any cold-front signal for mid-July.
Prepared by the Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is market information, not trading advice.