Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 28 · Monday, July 6, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
Arabica entered July trading near US$2.99–3.10/lb on ICE — levels not seen since March — supported by two converging forces: certified ICE stocks falling to 377,465 bags, the lowest since March 2024, and a Brazilian harvest running well behind schedule. The medium-term story was bearish — a record crop was coming — but the near-term reality was tight: exportable supply of fresh 26/27 coffee would arrive later than usual, and differentials for prompt shipment were firming. It was the opening chapter of the season’s defining tension between abundant future supply and scarce present coffee.
Harvest: rain is the story
Brazil’s harvest reached 44% complete as of June 24 (Safras & Mercado), versus 51% a year earlier and a five-year average of 47%. The culprit was exceptional rainfall — roughly 20× the historical average for the period in parts of Minas Gerais — which soaked cherries, slowed drying and pushed the crop’s arrival later into the year. That lag was the whole point for prompt buyers: the crop ahead is a record (Conab official 66.7M bags, +18%; StoneX higher at 75.3M), but the later it reached grading, the longer certified stocks would keep bleeding and the firmer nearby differentials would stay.
26/27 crop outlook
- Harvest behind. Safras & Mercado had the crop 44% in as of June 24, trailing last year and the five-year average.
- Record crop ahead. Conab official 66.7M bags (conilon 20.9M); StoneX higher at 75.3M.
- Rain risk. Excessive wet weather threatened drying and bean quality in parts of the belt.
- Scarce prompt. Certified stocks at a 20-month low kept the front end tight even with a big crop coming.
Exports & logistics
Cecafé shipments were running near 3 million bags a month as the tail of the old crop moved and new-crop volume slowly began to appear — a thin flow that left exchange inventory draining into the new season. The Port of Santos worked toward peak-season volumes, with vessel scheduling and container availability the practical bottlenecks. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, giving buyers redundancy across all three of Brazil’s coffee gateways as the new crop reaches the coast.
EUDR corner
The deadline was on the horizon. The EU Deforestation Regulation applies from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for small and micro enterprises; coffee sold into or exported from the EU must be proven deforestation-free after 31 December 2020, with plot-level geolocation and a due-diligence statement. Brazil’s exposure is large — the EU took 43.8% of Brazilian coffee exports in 2025 (17.56 million bags, ~US$7.1 billion, per Cecafé) — and Cecafé’s traceability platform is rolling out georeferencing accurate to 50 centimetres. Early preparation is the edge: verified, documented lots are where scarcity and regulation meet. Rockmart delivers EUDR-ready coffee with the full documentation package from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
With the harvest late and stocks thin, the market entered July coiled. Watch the rain over Minas Gerais and the harvest pace (Safras), the certified-stock line for further draws, and fund positioning — heading into the southern-hemisphere winter, any frost scare into so tight a front end could ignite an outsized move. The record crop was coming; the question was when it would actually arrive.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is general market commentary for information only — not individualized investment, trading, legal or tax advice, and not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any futures, option, security or commodity. Rockmart Holdings is a physical green-coffee broker and is not registered as a CTA, CPO, FCM, IB or investment adviser with the CFTC, NFA or SEC. Figures are drawn from third-party sources believed reliable but not guaranteed (StoneX, Safras & Mercado, Cecafé, Conab); prices and opinions are as of the date shown and may change without notice. Trading futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results — do your own due diligence and consult your own licensed advisers before acting. This report is market information, not trading advice.