Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 41 · Monday, October 12, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
December arabica touched the psychological barrier and could not keep it. It settled at 304.45 c/lb on Tuesday, Oct 6 (+4.1%), its first close above 300 in weeks (Safras & Mercado), then gave it all back: Friday’s Dec close was 286.95 c/lb, down 0.62% on the week. A full round trip with nothing new in the crop. What moved was perception: a sharp real appreciation (commercial dollar down to R$4.979 on Oct 5), a technical break of 300 that triggered buy stops, and El Niño fear for 2027, all of which faded as the week went on. Markets move when the probability of change moves, not when fundamentals finally change.
Curve, stocks and the funds
The curve still says “tight now”: on Oct 6 Dec settled 8.60 c/lb over March (304.45 vs 295.85), a backwardation that supports nearby coffee even as flat price retreated. On stocks, keep the distinction clear: pending grading is not certified coffee. We have no verified current count from our sources this week; the last hard figure, 224,617 certified bags on Aug 26 (Safras), was already a multi-decade low, and only graded bags rebuild it. Funds were adding length into the break: managed money net long 13,492 lots at Sept 29, up from 10,273 (CFTC via Safras), which leaves fuel for a reversal like the one we just saw. Weather is a live fact: rain helped flower opening and initial fruit set, but heat and dry spells remain the worry, and flowers are not coffee. Quality: excess humidity at the end of harvest hurt arabica cup in important regions (Safras), so fine cups should hold a premium while commercial grades lose value.
26/27 crop outlook
- Size: Conab’s 2026 estimate stands at 66.7 million bags (+18%). Supply is not the story.
- Quality: Safras warns part of the crop may go unused after the wet finish; scarcity value goes to the better cups.
- 2027 setup: early flowering and rains are positive for arabica and conilon (Safras), but a very strong El Niño threatens late-2026 rains.
- Physical prices: South Minas new-crop arabica was R$1,650–1,655/bag on Oct 2, with producers holding back for better levels (Safras).
Exports & logistics
Cecafé reported 3.894 million bags in September (+3.1%), revenue US$1.282 billion (−7.1%). The 2026/27 crop year (Jul–Sep) is at 11.210 million bags, +15.5%; Jan–Sep volume is 29.095 million (−0.2%) with revenue down 8.6%. The US rebounded to 625,192 bags (+86.4%); Belgium (+44.5%) and Italy (+11.6%) are growing while Germany and Japan are weaker. Differentiated coffees are only 17% of volume, down 16.3%. Santos handled 70.7% of Jan–Sep shipments and the Rio complex 25.2%. Strong shipments reflect earlier sales and do not necessarily mean more coffee available for new business.
EUDR corner
With full EUDR application set for December 30, 2026, traceability documentation is becoming a gating item for EU-bound cargo. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, with geolocation and due-diligence files prepared at lot level.
The week ahead
Watch whether Dec can reclaim 290 and 300, the Dec/March spread, the next CFTC read on fund length, producer selling after the real’s move, and rainfall in the arabica belt. Thesis: the market priced 2027 weather risk into a 2026 surplus and then took it back, so the next leg depends on rain, not headlines.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is market information, not trading advice.