Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 31 · 27 July 2026 · Santos / Panama City
The week in one paragraph
The frost scare that detonated a 16% single-session rally earlier in the month has largely deflated, and arabica has drifted back toward 310–311 c/lb (ICE KC settled near 310.75 c/lb on 23 July) as harvest-season selling and mid-month rain forecasts calmed the weather premium. But the floor stays firm for one stubborn reason: ICE certified stocks have collapsed to roughly 316,000 bags, the lowest in more than two years. A delayed Brazilian harvest, tight exchange inventory and a still-hot robusta complex are keeping the market coiled — softer on the screen, but structurally supported underneath.
Harvest — late, but heavy
The 2026/27 harvest remains behind schedule. Safras & Mercado put completion at 52% as of 1 July, trailing both last year’s 60% and the five-year average of 55%. Cold air pushed morning minimums to 5–7°C across southern Minas Gerais, the Paraíba Valley and the Caparáo region of Espírito Santo, keeping frost on the radar without confirmed material damage. Espírito Santo is running below-average rainfall for the month, while a stationary front late in the week threatened instability over southern Minas — a reminder that August frost risk is not off the table even as the harvest advances into its final third.
26/27 crop outlook
- Arabica: Conab projects 44.1 million bags, up 23.3% on the prior cycle — the on-year of the biennial cycle plus expanded area and favourable flowering.
- Conilon/robusta: Conab sees 22.1 million bags, up 6.4%, keeping Brazil’s robusta engine near record output.
- Total: a record Brazilian crop in aggregate, but the tardy pace and lean certified stocks mean supply is arriving into an inventory-starved market rather than a comfortable one.
- Robusta backdrop: London robusta held near $3,877/t in mid-July, with Vietnam’s July–September fruit-development window and El Niño heat the key swing factor for 26/27.
Exports & logistics
Crop-year 2025/26 (July–June) closed at 38.46 million bags, down 15.7% year-on-year, though June rebounded strongly at roughly +17% as the pipeline reopened. The Port of Santos handled close to 80% of first-half shipments but strained under the load: more than 453,000 bags failed to ship in June on infrastructure exhaustion, costing an estimated R$1 billion in lost foreign-exchange revenue, with vessel waiting times stretching to 37 days and a 59% rate of delayed or altered ship calls. Logistics, not supply, is the near-term bottleneck — and it favours shippers who can flex across terminals. Rockmart moves EUDR-ready green coffee out of Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, which matters when one port jams. On the currency side, USD/BRL sat around 5.09 (5.0851 on 24 July), the real firmer by about 2.1% on the month despite a fresh US 25% tariff on Brazilian imports effective 22 July; a stronger real trims Brazilian producer selling in local terms and lends the market marginal support.
EUDR corner
Brussels has drawn the line: the EUDR becomes enforceable on 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators, with micro and small operators following on 30 June 2027. The Commission’s 4 May simplification package (updated FAQs, guidance and a draft delegated act on product scope) streamlined due-diligence obligations without reopening the core text, and the EU has signalled no further delays. With roughly five months to the large-operator deadline, geolocation data, traceability and compliant documentation are now operational necessities, not future projects. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro and can supply the full documentation package with each contract.
The week ahead
- Weather: watch southern Minas and the Caparáo for renewed frost risk as cold fronts move through — August is the danger month.
- Stocks: any further slide in ICE certified inventory below ~316k bags would re-tighten the technical picture and could reignite the risk premium.
- Harvest pace: a catch-up in completion percentage would add near-term selling pressure; continued lag would not.
- Macro: USD/BRL direction and fallout from the new US tariff on Brazilian goods.
Prepared by the Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is market information, not trading advice.