Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 41 · Monday, October 5, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
December arabica settled at 290.70 c/lb on Wednesday, September 30 (StoneX), after losing 6.7% in September from 311.50 (Safras & Mercado). The week ended above 287.00, still probing the 300 area, with USD/BRL near 5.23. Fundamentals barely moved. Perception did: a record crop printed, rain arrived for flowering, and the market is repricing the probability of ample supply in 2027. Markets move when the probability of change moves, not when fundamentals finally change.
Curve, stocks and positioning
The Dec/March switch settled at 7.85 on September 30 (range 7.80–9.50) and recovered to near 8.90 on October 1 after holding 7.00 support. Backwardation persists, so nearby coffee still commands a premium, but it is a market that bounces rather than panics. Certified stocks stood at 260,654 bags on September 30, with 4,933 bags added after the close. Pending grading is not certified coffee, so we do not call this a rebuild. Arabica volume of 24,181 lots on October 1 sat below the 30K mark: little conviction from speculative money either way. StoneX frames 277/300 as the consolidation range.
Weather and quality
Safras reports September rain in the coffee belt supporting flowering, which keeps the 2027 weather premium fading. But flowers are not coffee: StoneX reminds us that El Niño changes the odds without deciding the weather region by region. On the 2026 crop, the latest Safras harvest print we hold is 94% on August 19 (arabica 91%), behind last year’s 99%. Safras notes the crop is now showing up in cooperatives and warehouses, so the fine-cup versus commercial split will become visible in offers.
26/27 crop outlook
- Conab’s third survey (Sept 24): 67.6 million bags, +19.6%, the largest in its series.
- Arabica 48.2 million (+34.8%); conilon 19.4 million (−6.6%).
- Productivity up 13.8% to 34.6 bags/ha; Espírito Santo conilon at 12.1 million (−14.3%).
- Robusta held above its 200-day average near 3,510 on September 30, a reminder that conilon supply is the tighter leg.
Exports & logistics
Cecáfé reports August shipments of 4.155 million bags (+31%), the best August on record, worth US$1.331 billion. Arabica was 2.866 million bags and conilon 953,592 (+53.6%). Calendar-year exports reached 25.073 million bags through August (−1.2%). Santos handled 70.9% and the Rio complex 24.9%. Cecáfé again flagged port infrastructure deficiencies that cost exporters in storage and cargo rolling. Safras says shipments topped 4 million bags in both August and September.
EUDR corner
Germany (2.824 million bags) and Belgium (+39.2%) lead the EU pull through August. Cecáfé’s August report was silent on EUDR, but the full deadline of December 30, 2026 is not. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
Watch Cecáfé’s September export report, the expiry of November arabica options (a volatility trigger per StoneX), a test of 300 on the upside versus 277 below, USD/BRL toward 5.30, and whether flowering rain keeps coming.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is market information, not trading advice.