Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 39 · Monday, September 21, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
The floor finally gave. StoneX has the Dec/26 arabica breaking below the 277 support it had leaned on, settling at 276.50 cents/lb as of Thursday’s close, with stochastics oversold and, in StoneX’s read, fundamentals still pointing lower. The reason is the one we flagged last week: the record crop is now reaching the exchange. Certified ICE stocks rose +14,408 bags to 247,887, while pending grading fell to 31,168 as 14,532 bags passed grading — pending coffee is converting into certified, and the prompt-tightness cushion that underpinned the market all season is refilling. A firmer dollar and a weaker real (USD/BRL ~5.17) added to the pressure.
Pending becomes certified
For months the bull case was simple: certified stocks kept draining while Brazil harvested a record crop. That is now reversing in real time. The pending grading we flagged a week ago is converting — certified stocks rose for the first time in a meaningful way this season (+14,408 to 247,887 bags), the delivery period logged 244 notices as new-crop coffee is tendered against the exchange, and the Dec/March switch eased into a 7.40–8.55 range, relieving the prompt tension that had kept the curve steeply inverted. The market spent the season pricing the probability that the crop would arrive; now it is watching it arrive. With the technical 277 support broken and momentum lower, the two-timeline tension is resolving toward the abundant side — though several sessions of oversold readings warn against chasing it straight down.
26/27 crop outlook
- Conab’s third survey lands Sep 24. The week’s key data point; the standing official estimate is a record 66.7M bags (arabica 45.77M, +28%), with StoneX higher at 75.3M.
- Rebuild underway. Pending grading converting into certified stock is the clearest bearish signal — the season’s tightness is easing.
- Flowering supported. Good rainfall before and through flowering has aided the 2027 arabica set (Conab/Safras), trimming the weather premium.
- Robusta capped. A record Brazilian conilon crop keeps London’s upside limited.
Exports & logistics
Cecafé’s record August — 4.16 million bags shipped, up 31% year on year — remains the latest read, and this week the exchange saw the proof of it: new-crop coffee tendered into the delivery period and passing grading. The Port of Santos is working peak-season volumes, where vessel scheduling and container availability remain the practical bottlenecks. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, giving buyers redundancy across all three of Brazil’s coffee gateways as the new crop moves.
EUDR corner
The deadline is now about three months out. The EU Deforestation Regulation applies from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for small and micro enterprises; coffee sold into or exported from the EU must be proven deforestation-free after 31 December 2020, with plot-level geolocation and a due-diligence statement. The stakes are large: the EU took 43.8% of Brazilian coffee exports in 2025 — some 17.56 million bags worth around US$7.1 billion, per Cecafé — and Cecafé’s traceability platform now covers roughly 90% of EU-bound shipments, with georeferencing accurate to 50 centimetres. As stocks rebuild, the premium shifts from raw scarcity to verified, documented, EUDR-ready lots. Rockmart delivers exactly that, with the full documentation package from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
All eyes on Conab’s third survey (Sep 24) — a higher official number would reinforce the bearish tilt. Beyond that: whether certified stocks keep rebuilding (they should, as pending grading clears), whether arabica reclaims 277 or extends toward the next support, and USD/BRL near 5.17 — a weaker real keeps Brazilian producers selling. Oversold conditions could spark a technical bounce, but the structural story now favours the downside.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is general market commentary for information only — not individualized investment, trading, legal or tax advice, and not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any futures, option, security or commodity. Rockmart Holdings is a physical green-coffee broker and is not registered as a CTA, CPO, FCM, IB or investment adviser with the CFTC, NFA or SEC. Figures are drawn from third-party sources believed reliable but not guaranteed (StoneX, Safras & Mercado, Cecafé, Conab); prices and opinions are as of the date shown and may change without notice. Trading futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results — do your own due diligence and consult your own licensed advisers before acting. This report is market information, not trading advice.