Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 42 · Monday, October 12, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
Dec arabica ripped 11.90 c/lb (+4.1%) to 304.45 on Tuesday, October 6 (Safras & Mercado), the first close above 300 since early September. StoneX noted origin selling at 304–305 capping the move, StoneX had Dec at 289.05 on October 8, and on Friday, October 9 it settled at 286.95 (−2.10) on a 284.25–291.80 range — the whole spike erased, and below the October 1 close of 288.25. The fundamentals barely moved: Conab still has a record 67.6 million bag crop. What moved was perception — a weaker dollar, short covering and 2027 weather fear. Markets move when the probability of change moves, not when fundamentals finally change.
Curve, stocks and positioning
The curve is the tell. On October 6 StoneX had the Dec/March switch at 8.80–9.00 through the morning, then about 8.45 after 11:30; Safras’ closes put it at 8.60. By Friday, October 9 (StoneX) Dec 286.95 vs Mar 279.80 is 7.15: backwardation is narrowing, and Dec26 sits 17.60 over Dec27 (269.35). The market is still paying for nearby coffee, just less each day. On stocks, StoneX flagged withdrawals from certified stocks supporting the open on October 7. We have no verified pending-grading count this week, so we will not guess: pending coffee is not certified coffee, and nothing here says certified stocks are rebuilding. On funds, none of our four houses published a verified positioning figure, so we leave it out; the volume (close to 22,000 Dec lots on the 6th) looked like short covering as much as new length. Dec open interest was 80,155 on the 6th and 77,003 on the 9th (−1,755 on the day), total arabica OI 160,797 (−0.2%): length is being cut, not added. USD/BRL sat near 4.98 (StoneX, October 6): a firmer real is what let the rally breathe.
Weather and quality
Rain arrived for flowering: Safras reports rains during flower opening and initial fruit set for the 2027 crop. But temperatures are high, rain-free spells are being flagged this week, and a strong El Niño is the market’s worry for the final months of 2026. The 2027 weather premium is building, but flowers are not coffee. On quality, Safras says the 2026 arabica crop suffered humidity-related quality issues, so expect a wider gap between fine cup and commercial grades.
26/27 crop outlook
- Conab (3rd survey, Sept 24): 67.6 million bags, +19.6% on 2025 and the largest in its series.
- Arabica: 48.2 million bags, +34.8%. Conilon: 19.4 million, −6.6%, on lower Espírito Santo yields.
- Harvest: Safras’ last published pace (Aug 19) was 94% total, 91% arabica, behind 99% a year earlier; conilon was done.
- Read-through: big arabica supply is priced; the swing factor is the 2027 crop, not 2026.
Exports & logistics
Cecafé reports 3.894 million bags shipped in September, +3.1% year on year, on revenue of US$1.282 billion (−7.1%). The 2026/27 crop year (July–September) is at 11.210 million bags, +15.5%. Year to date, arabica is 20.739 million (−10.7%) while canephora is 5.162 million (+68.3%). Germany took 3.307 million, Italy is up 11.6%, Belgium +44.5%; the US is down 12.8%. Strong shipments plus a firmer dollar remain the bearish combination. Rockmart ships from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
EUDR corner
Europe is still where Brazilian volume is growing, and the full EUDR deadline of December 30, 2026 is under 80 days away. Cecafé’s September release does not address EUDR, but the buyers in Germany, Italy and Belgium will. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
Dec closed Friday just under 287.00 support (low 284.25); watch for a test of 277.00, and whether 300 caps rallies again. For robusta, StoneX flags options expiry on October 20 and first notice day for Nov on October 27 (Nov settled 3,423 on October 8). Next: rainfall in the belt and the dollar.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is market information, not trading advice.