Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 33 · Monday, August 10, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
Arabica steadied around US$3.08–3.12/lb on ICE after a jumpy few weeks, closing near 311.6 cents/lb. The contract still sat roughly 15% below where it traded a month earlier, but it ground higher again on one stubborn fact: prompt supply was thin. Certified ICE stocks bled to about 264,000 bags — the lowest since early 2024 and barely a third of the ~792,000 bags on hand a year earlier. Add a firmer Brazilian real (near R$5.08/USD, its strongest in weeks) that discouraged producer selling, and a 2026/27 harvest that ran late all season, and the message for buyers was unchanged: the fresh crop is real and large, but it was arriving slowly, and differentials for prompt shipment stayed firm.
Big crop, slow arrival
The week was a study in timing risk. Fundamentally the crop is a record — Conab official 66.7M bags (+18%), StoneX higher at 75.3M, with the balance set to loosen — but a late harvest and a firmer real meant that coffee reached the exchange slowly and producers were in no rush to sell. So the front end stayed inverted and prompt differentials firm even as the screen carried a bearish medium-term story. The market was pricing probability more than fact: everyone could see the big crop coming; what they could not yet see was it arriving in deliverable, graded form.
26/27 crop outlook
- Record crop, running late. Conab official 66.7M bags (conilon 20.9M); StoneX higher at 75.3M.
- Balance loosening. StoneX sees the 2026 global market moving toward surplus as Brazil and Vietnam expand.
- Firmer real. A stronger BRL near 5.08 slowed producer selling and supported prompt differentials.
- Quality mix softer. Winter rains raised the share of lower-grade coffee, firming fine-cup premiums (Safras & Mercado).
Exports & logistics
Cecafé shipments were running near 3 million bags a month as new-crop volume began to move, even with the harvest behind schedule. The Port of Santos worked peak-season flows, with vessel scheduling and container availability the practical bottlenecks. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, giving buyers redundancy across all three of Brazil’s coffee gateways.
EUDR corner
The deadline stayed in focus. The EU Deforestation Regulation applies from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for small and micro enterprises; coffee sold into or exported from the EU must be proven deforestation-free after 31 December 2020, with plot-level geolocation and a due-diligence statement. Brazil’s exposure is large — the EU took 43.8% of Brazilian coffee exports in 2025 (17.56 million bags, ~US$7.1 billion, per Cecafé) — and Cecafé’s traceability platform is rolling out georeferencing accurate to 50 centimetres. With prompt stocks scarce and the deadline nearing, verified, documented lots are where scarcity and regulation meet. Rockmart delivers EUDR-ready coffee with the full documentation package from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
The near-term tension stayed: a thin, inverted front end versus a large crop arriving slowly. Watch the certified-stock line for any turn as new coffee reaches grading, the pace of the harvest’s final stretch (Safras), and the real — further BRL strength would keep producers on the sidelines and prompt differentials firm.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is general market commentary for information only — not individualized investment, trading, legal or tax advice, and not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any futures, option, security or commodity. Rockmart Holdings is a physical green-coffee broker and is not registered as a CTA, CPO, FCM, IB or investment adviser with the CFTC, NFA or SEC. Figures are drawn from third-party sources believed reliable but not guaranteed (StoneX, Safras & Mercado, Cecafé, Conab); prices and opinions are as of the date shown and may change without notice. Trading futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results — do your own due diligence and consult your own licensed advisers before acting. This report is market information, not trading advice.