Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 30 · July 20, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
The week in one paragraph
The rally finally paused. September arabica (KC) closed the week near 315 cents/lb, down about 16.65 cents — the first negative weekly close in six weeks — after oscillating between $3.20 and $3.50 earlier in the week as traders weighed drier Brazilian forecasts and a faster harvest pace. Yet the floor stayed firm: ICE certified arabica stocks fell again to 344,269 bags as of July 18, down 28,749 bags on the week (the sharpest drop in months) and down roughly 487,000 bags from 831,719 a year ago. London robusta pushed higher for a second straight week to around $3,887/ton, supported by Vietnam’s off-season. The wildcard this week was politics, not weather: a new 25% US tariff on Brazilian imports takes effect July 22, nudging the real off its recent highs.
Harvest
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest reached 64% complete as of July 15 (Safras & Mercado), still trailing 77% a year ago and the five-year average of 70%. Two weeks earlier the crop stood at just 52% versus 60% last year, so the gap is real and persistent. Mid-July rains across much of the growing belt slowed fieldwork and lifted the share of fallen cherries, raising quality questions in some lots even as they ease drought worry. In Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo, above-average temperatures have kept serious frost risk low, though a localized cold snap near the southern Minas/Sao Paulo border flirted with 4°C over the weekend. Below-average rainfall in parts of the Southeast keeps irrigation management front of mind.
26/27 crop outlook
- USDA still pegs the 2026/27 Brazilian crop at a record 71.9 million bags, anchoring the market’s surplus narrative.
- Conilon/robusta remains the structural story: strong Espirito Santo output, with conilon FOB Vitoria around R$1,025/bag and the 2026/27 minimum price set at R$556.97.
- The slow harvest pace tempers near-term supply, but a large crop plus shrinking exchange stocks sets up a tug-of-war between headline volume and certified tightness.
- Watch quality differentials: rain-driven cherry drop could widen the spread between fine cup and commercial grades.
Exports & logistics
The 2025/26 crop year (July–June) closed with Brazilian coffee exports of 38.46 million bags, down 15.7%, though June rebounded sharply (up roughly 17%) — a turnaround that carried into the new crop year. The Port of Santos again dominated, handling around 80% of shipments in the first half of 2026, but congestion bit: more than 453,000 bags could not ship in June as port infrastructure hit capacity. On currency, USD/BRL traded near 5.09–5.11 in mid-July; the real had firmed on a wide Selic-driven yield gap (14.25%) before the incoming US tariff trimmed some of that strength. Rockmart continues to ship EUDR-ready green coffee from Santos, Vitoria and Rio de Janeiro, routing volume to keep clients clear of Santos bottlenecks.
EUDR corner
On July 13 the European Commission adopted a delegated regulation updating Annex I of the EUDR, alongside Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1565 for the information system. The headline change for our sector: soluble coffee is now inside scope, closing what Brussels called a “fragmented and incoherent” gap. Crucially, the enforcement calendar did not move — large and medium operators must have due diligence systems running by December 30, 2026, and micro/small operators by June 30, 2027. Newly added products such as soluble coffee get a grace period to December 30, 2027. Translation: green coffee deadlines are unchanged and closing fast. Rockmart’s full EUDR documentation package — geolocation, due-diligence statements and traceable origin from Santos, Vitoria and Rio — is ready now.
The week ahead
- July 22: the 25% US tariff on Brazilian imports takes effect — watch USD/BRL and any shift in US-bound flows.
- Next Safras & Mercado harvest read: does the pace close the gap to the five-year average, or keep lagging?
- ICE certified stocks: another sharp draw would reinforce the tightness that has underpinned prices despite the record crop.
- Southeast Brazil weather: frost windows through August, plus rainfall that could keep affecting cherry drop and cup quality.
Prepared by the Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is market information, not trading advice.