Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 30 · Monday, July 20, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
The rally finally paused. September arabica (KC) closed the week near 315 cents/lb, down about 16.65 cents — the first negative weekly close in six weeks — after oscillating between $3.20 and $3.50 as traders weighed drier Brazilian forecasts and a faster harvest pace. Yet the floor stayed firm: certified ICE arabica stocks fell again to 344,269 bags as of July 18, down 28,749 bags on the week (the sharpest drop in months) and down roughly 487,000 bags from 831,719 a year ago. London robusta pushed higher for a second straight week to around US$3,887/t on Vietnam’s off-season. The week’s wildcard was politics, not weather: a new 25% U.S. tariff on Brazilian imports took effect July 22.
A rally that paused, a floor that held
The week marked the first crack in the momentum, but not in the structure. Drier forecasts and quicker picking gave funds a reason to bank profits, snapping the six-week climb. Underneath, though, the physical picture stayed tight — the record crop ahead (Conab official 66.7M bags, +18%; StoneX higher at 75.3M) had not reached the exchange, and the fastest weekly stock draw in months underlined how thin the front end was. The new U.S. tariff added a distortion, threatening to reroute Brazilian coffee and reshuffle differentials. Probability, not fact, drove the tape: a big crop was coming, but scarcity was here.
26/27 crop outlook
- Harvest speeding up. Drier weather let pickers accelerate after a slow start (Safras & Mercado), though the crop stayed behind the historical pace.
- Record crop ahead. Conab official 66.7M bags (conilon 20.9M); StoneX higher at 75.3M.
- Tariff shock. A 25% U.S. tariff on Brazilian imports (effective July 22) began reshaping trade flows and nudging the real.
- Robusta firm. London pushed higher on Vietnam’s off-season, keeping the arbitrage in focus.
Exports & logistics
Cecafé reported Brazil exported 38.5 million bags in the 2025/26 crop year, down 15.7% — the thin carry-out that left exchange inventory so depleted into the new crop — with monthly shipments running near 3 million bags as fresh coffee slowly entered the pipeline. The looming U.S. tariff threatened to redirect some volume toward other destinations. The Port of Santos worked toward peak-season flows, with vessel scheduling and container availability the practical bottlenecks. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, giving buyers redundancy across all three of Brazil’s coffee gateways.
EUDR corner
The deadline stayed on the horizon. The EU Deforestation Regulation applies from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for small and micro enterprises; coffee sold into or exported from the EU must be proven deforestation-free after 31 December 2020, with plot-level geolocation and a due-diligence statement. Brazil’s exposure is large — the EU took 43.8% of Brazilian coffee exports in 2025 (17.56 million bags, ~US$7.1 billion, per Cecafé) — and with a new U.S. tariff redirecting trade, EUDR readiness makes the EU channel the more dependable outlet. Cecafé’s traceability platform is rolling out georeferencing accurate to 50 centimetres. Rockmart delivers EUDR-ready coffee with the full documentation package from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
The question was whether the pause becomes a top. Watch the certified-stock line for continued draws, the harvest pace as it accelerates (Safras), and the tariff fallout for the real and Brazilian selling — a weaker BRL would encourage producer sales, while the thin front end left the market one supply scare from another spike.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is general market commentary for information only — not individualized investment, trading, legal or tax advice, and not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any futures, option, security or commodity. Rockmart Holdings is a physical green-coffee broker and is not registered as a CTA, CPO, FCM, IB or investment adviser with the CFTC, NFA or SEC. Figures are drawn from third-party sources believed reliable but not guaranteed (StoneX, Safras & Mercado, Cecafé, Conab); prices and opinions are as of the date shown and may change without notice. Trading futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results — do your own due diligence and consult your own licensed advisers before acting. This report is market information, not trading advice.