Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 33 · Monday, August 10, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
The week in one paragraph
Arabica has steadied around US$3.08–3.12/lb on ICE after a jumpy few weeks, closing the prior session near 311.6 cents/lb. The contract still sits roughly 15% below where it traded a month ago, but it is grinding higher again on one stubborn fact: prompt supply is thin. ICE certified stocks have bled to about 264,000 bags — the lowest since early 2024 and barely a third of the ~792,000 bags on hand this time last year. Add a firmer Brazilian real (near R$5.08/USD, its strongest in weeks) that discourages producer selling, and a 2026/27 harvest that ran late all season, and the message for buyers is unchanged: the fresh crop is real and large, but it is arriving slowly, and differentials for prompt shipment stay firm.
Harvest: into the final stretch, but late
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest reached 64% complete by mid-July, versus 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70% (Safras & Mercado) — the widest lag of the season, driven by exceptional June rainfall across Minas Gerais that slowed picking and drying. Picking is now in its closing weeks and the physical crop is finally moving, but the delayed pace has kept fresh, well-prepared lots from reaching the market on the usual timetable. Wet-weather risk to cup quality in natural preparations remains a watch item for the tail of the crop; buyers of fine-cup naturals should keep extra lead time in their Q3–Q4 nominations.
26/27 crop outlook
- Arabica: still tracking a strong on-year rebound of roughly +28% year on year, with total Brazil output near 66 million bags — a large crop whose main constraint has been timing, not size.
- Conilon / robusta: production seen broadly stable, around 20.9–21 million bags (about +0.8%) — historically high and important for blenders even as it eases from last year’s record.
- Frost watch: the critical June–July window has largely passed with no confirmed damage, but cold fronts out of Argentina can still move New York into mid-August. Traders are also pricing longer-term El Niño risk for the 27/28 crop. We monitor daily.
Exports & logistics
The 2025/26 crop year (July–June) closed with Brazilian exports at 38.46 million bags, down 15.7% year on year, though June rebounded +16.9% as the pipeline reopened. Robusta shipments have been the standout, with Brazil moving a record monthly volume of nearly 699,000 bags — the largest since Cecafé began reporting in 1990. The Port of Santos again handled roughly 75–80% of all coffee shipments — concentration that rewards exporters who hold alternatives. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee via Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, which matters most for Conilon flows out of Espírito Santo when Santos is congested.
EUDR corner
The regulation is now live in stages: large operators since December 30, 2025; SMEs since June 30, 2026, with full application for large and medium operators on December 30, 2026 and small/micro operators on June 30, 2027. Customs systems are running and the first non-compliant containers are already being held. Every kilo of green coffee entering the EU must carry farm-plot GPS coordinates and a due-diligence statement confirming no deforestation after December 31, 2020. Do not treat the phased timeline as breathing room — supply-chain mapping takes 6–18 months, so coffee contracted for H1 2027 delivery into Europe should already carry geolocation and documentation today. All Rockmart supply ships EUDR-ready, with geodata and deforestation due diligence included.
The week ahead
Watch: the final harvest prints and any late-season rain in Minas; ICE certified-stock draws (each session of decline tightens the prompt); the real near R$5.08/USD (a firmer real keeps producers sidelined); the standing US tariff on Brazilian coffee and any headlines around it; and cold-front signals into mid-August.
Prepared by the Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is market information, not trading advice.