Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 35 · August 24, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
The week in one paragraph
Arabica held its ground near multi-month highs even as Brazil’s record harvest all but wrapped up. The front-month ICE arabica (KC) settled around 324 cents/lb, with the December contract closing the prior week near 314 cents/lb — broadly flat on the week after testing three-week highs early on. The bullish anchor remains the same: ICE certified stocks sit at roughly 231,000 bags, their lowest since late 2023, and the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee continues to scramble trade flows. London robusta stayed on the back foot on expectations of fresh Asian supply. In short, a record crop is meeting a market that still cannot rebuild visible inventory — and that tension is keeping arabica firm.
Harvest: the record crop crosses the line
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is now essentially complete. Safras & Mercado pegged progress at 90% as of mid-August, still trailing 97% a year earlier and the five-year average of 94%, with arabica the laggard at around 86%. The slow finish has been more about picking pace and drying logistics than about volume — the crop itself is a record. What matters for the market is that even a bumper Brazilian harvest has not translated into a rebuild of exchange-certified stocks, which is why thin inventories keep doing the heavy lifting on price.
26/27 crop outlook
- Conab record: total 2026/27 output seen at 66.7 million bags, up ~18% year-on-year and the highest in Conab’s series, beating the 2020 record.
- Arabica leads: arabica forecast at 45.7 million bags (+28%), driven by near-record yields in Minas Gerais, where timely September–October rains supported fruit set.
- Conilon steadier: robusta pegged around 20.9 million bags (+1%), with cooler, wetter spells in Espírito Santo trimming the top off yields.
- Watch the flowering: attention now shifts to spring rains in September–October, which will set the tone for the 2027/28 crop and, with it, the medium-term price path.
Exports & logistics
Cecafé data for July put total shipments at 3.03 million bags, up 9.9% year-on-year, with green coffee at 2.67 million bags (+8.7%). The split tells the tariff story: arabica shipments fell 8.9% to 1.82 million bags — the weakest July since 2018 — while robusta surged 84% to 851,000 bags and soluble added 360,000 bags. The Port of Santos remains the backbone of the trade, handling roughly four-fifths of Brazil’s bean exports and moving cargo without major disruption this week. Rockmart continues to ship EUDR-ready green coffee out of Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, giving buyers flexibility across arabica and conilon origins as U.S.-bound flows reroute.
EUDR corner
The compliance clock is unchanged: large and medium operators must be ready by December 30, 2026, and small and micro operators by June 30, 2027. With roughly four months to the first deadline, traceability is no longer a nice-to-have — and survey work still suggests a large share of EU roasters have done little on supply-chain diligence. This is exactly where documentation quality separates suppliers: Rockmart’s EUDR package (geolocation, due-diligence statements and full lot traceability) ships as standard with coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
Three things to watch: (1) ICE certified stock flows — any further slide below the 231k mark would reinforce the tight-inventory narrative; (2) the U.S.–Brazil tariff picture, where any hint of a trade deal could quickly unwind part of arabica’s risk premium; and (3) early-spring weather in Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, the first read on 2027/28. The Brazilian real near 5.14 per dollar is a mild headwind to aggressive producer selling. Expect arabica to stay choppy and headline-driven while stocks stay this thin.
Prepared by the Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is market information, not trading advice.