Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Green Coffee Weekly Market Brief · Week 40 · Monday, September 28, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The brief in one paragraph
Brazil’s record 2026 crop is no longer a forecast. Conab’s third survey (24 September, reported by Safras) puts it at 67.6M bags, with arabica at 48.2M and 99% of the area harvested. The coffee is now moving through the physical pipeline: Cecafé counted a record 4.155M bags exported in August. Dec/26 ICE arabica settled Friday at 278.60 c/lb, per StoneX. For buyers, though, the screen price is only one of three numbers that matter. The other two are the physical differential and the landed replacement cost, and this week they sent different signals.
Brazil physical differentials
Safras quoted Sul de Minas bebida boa new crop at R$1,570–1,580/bag and Cerrado bebida dura at R$1,580–1,590 on 24 September, both unchanged. At StoneX’s USD/BRL of 5.1978 that day, those prices work out to roughly 45–46 c/lb under Dec/26 (275.35 that day). That’s our farm-gate calculation, before preparation, freight and export costs, not a published FOB differential. Quality is where the spread shows up. Zona da Mata rio type 7 traded at R$1,170, about 105 c/lb under Dec, so fine cup and commercial coffee are priced as different products. Brazil’s own exchange shows the same thing. B3 Dec settled at US$338.60/bag, about US$30/bag (≈22.6 c/lb) below the ICE Dec equivalent. Sellers are active: Safras described Friday’s physical market as moderate, with farmers holding back only on down days.
ICE arabica certified stocks
Certified stocks rose to 254,304 bags as of 24 September (ICE, via Safras), up from 247,887 a week earlier. That rise is real, and it comes from Brazilian new crop passing grading. Pending grading is still not certified coffee, though, and none of our sources published a clean pending figure this week. We read this as the start of a recovery, not a rebuild. The curve agrees. StoneX data show the Dec/March switch narrowed from 8.55c to 7.35c over the week. The inverse is still in place, but prompt coffee is carrying a smaller premium.
EUDR-ready forward business
The EUDR full deadline is 30 December 2026. Forward business now depends on documentation as much as on price. According to Cecafé, the Cecafé–Serasa Experian traceability platform covers 50+ exporters and cooperatives that handle nearly all Brazilian shipments to the EU. The EU is buying. January–August, Belgium took 2.115M bags (+39.2%) and Italy 2.248M (+12.8%), while Germany eased to 2.824M. The futures curve favours forward cover: Mar/27 settled at 271.25, Jul/27 at 267.60 and Dec/27 at 264.40, which puts Dec/27 14.20c under the front month. Buyers who fix EUDR-compliant, geolocated lots on deferred months get both the discount and the documentation. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
U.S. tariff-adjusted replacement costs
The tariff part of U.S. replacement cost has gone away for Brazilian coffee. Cecafé notes that green coffee was exempted in November 2025 and soluble in July 2026. U.S. buyers still lag. The U.S. took 3.158M bags January–August, down 21.6%, which suggests roasters have restocking to do. The cost pressure has moved to logistics. StoneX flags a shortage of 20-foot containers at Santos and a higher risk of rolled bookings. Cecafé says port congestion keeps adding storage and roll-over costs. Landed replacement cost now works out to futures plus differential plus freight, with no duty on top. Freight and schedule reliability are the terms worth negotiating.
Signal vs noise
- Signal: certified stocks rising while the Dec/March switch narrows means prompt tightness is easing.
- Signal: wide quality spreads inside Brazil mean a single benchmark price can’t describe the market.
- Noise: daily swings on thin volume. StoneX saw combined NY/London trade fail to top 40,000 lots on Thursday.
- Watch: the real. It lost 0.80% on the week (StoneX) ahead of Brazil’s 4 October election, and a weaker real pushes farmer selling.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is market information, not trading advice.