StoneX: December arabica settled Friday at 285.70c even as certified ICE stocks held near 2026 lows — because ~65,000 bags of mostly Brazilian coffee are now in pending grading, the Dec/March switch has eased, and Cecafé confirmed a record August (4.16M bags, +31%). Perception moved before the fundamentals.
Arabica broke below US$3.00/lb toward multi-month lows as record Brazilian crop estimates (71.9–75.9M bags) piled up — even as ICE certified stocks hit a fresh ~226k-bag low and robusta collapsed ~10.5% on a record conilon crop. EUDR's Dec 30 deadline looms.
ICE certified arabica stocks fell to roughly 228,000 bags — the lowest in years and nearing late-1990s levels — versus ~727,000 a year ago, keeping KC firm around 324 cents/lb even as Brazil wrapped up a record 2026/27 crop. USD/BRL near 5.19; EUDR enforcement holds at Dec 30, 2026.
The European Commission has clarified who does what across the coffee supply chain, eased downstream paperwork and added soluble coffee to the scope — but the EUDR deadlines hold: Dec 30, 2026 for large/medium operators, June 30, 2027 for micro/small. For the operator placing coffee on the EU market, full due diligence and geolocation stay intact.
Brazil's record 2026/27 harvest all but wraps up, yet ICE certified stocks near a late-2023 low and a 50% U.S. tariff keep arabica firm around 324 cents/lb. Conab sees a record 66.7M-bag crop; July exports rose 9.9% as robusta surged and arabica hit its weakest July since 2018.
ICE certified arabica stocks drained to roughly 244,000 bags — a two-and-a-half-year low — as Brazil closed in on the end of a late 2026/27 harvest (90% done vs 97% a year ago), keeping KC firm near 321 cents/lb even as profit-taking cooled a midweek spike above 335.
Arabica steadies near US$3.08-3.12/lb as ICE certified stocks bleed to a two-year low (~264k bags) and Brazil's late 26/27 harvest finally enters its final stretch. A firmer real (R$5.08) keeps producers sidelined, robusta exports hit a record, and EUDR enforcement counts down to Dec 30, 2026.
ICE certified arabica stocks fell to 274,168 bags — the lowest since February 2024 — as Brazil's 2026/27 harvest ran well behind schedule, keeping KC firm near 316 cents/lb even against a record 66.7-million-bag CONAB crop forecast.
Arabica eases toward 310 c/lb as the frost scare deflates, but ICE certified stocks at a 2-year low near 316,000 bags keep the floor firm. Harvest lags at 52%, Santos jams, and the EUDR clock ticks toward 30 December 2026.
Arabica snaps a six-week rally near 315 c/lb even as ICE certified stocks fall to 344,269 bags; Brazil's harvest lags at 64%, Santos congestion bites, and a new 25% US tariff on Brazilian imports lands July 22.