Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 29 · Monday, July 13, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
Coffee delivered one of its most violent weeks in a generation. Arabica on ICE surged roughly 16% — one of its largest weekly gains in years — punching back above US$3.50/lb for the first time since January before settling near US$3.40/lb (about 340 cents/lb). Three forces converged: rain that stalled Brazil’s harvest, certified ICE stocks grinding down to a 2.25-year low of ~346,419 bags, and a wave of short-covering after managed funds flipped to a net-short position for the first time since late 2023. For buyers the message was sharper but unchanged: fresh 26/27 coffee was arriving later than usual, prompt differentials were firm, and the flat-price tape was dangerous to chase.
When positioning meets scarcity
This was a positioning story as much as a fundamental one — a textbook case of the tape moving on the probability of change. Funds had sold into the record-crop narrative and gone net-short; when rain stalled the harvest and stocks kept draining, that short became the fuel. The squeeze detonated precisely because the front end was so thin: with certified inventory at multi-year lows, there was no cushion to absorb the scramble for prompt coffee. The medium-term crop story (Conab official 66.7M bags, +18%; StoneX higher at 75.3M) stayed intact — but for a week, expectations, not supply, set the price.
26/27 crop outlook
- Rain stalls picking. Wet weather slowed the harvest; Safras & Mercado had completion running behind the five-year pace in early July.
- Record crop ahead. Conab official 66.7M bags (conilon 20.9M); StoneX higher at 75.3M.
- Funds net-short. Managed money flipped net-short for the first time since late 2023, setting up the short-covering spike.
- Quality watch. Rain during picking raised early questions over bean quality (Safras).
Exports & logistics
Cecafé reported Brazil exported 38.5 million bags in the 2025/26 crop year, down 15.7% — the thin carry-out behind the exchange’s depleted inventory — with monthly shipments near 3 million bags as new-crop coffee slowly entered the pipeline. Rain-delayed picking threatened to push shipment timing later still. The Port of Santos worked toward peak-season flows, with vessel scheduling and container availability the practical bottlenecks. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, giving buyers redundancy across all three of Brazil’s coffee gateways.
EUDR corner
The deadline stayed on the horizon. The EU Deforestation Regulation applies from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for small and micro enterprises; coffee sold into or exported from the EU must be proven deforestation-free after 31 December 2020, with plot-level geolocation and a due-diligence statement. Brazil’s exposure is large — the EU took 43.8% of Brazilian coffee exports in 2025 (17.56 million bags, ~US$7.1 billion, per Cecafé) — and Cecafé’s traceability platform is rolling out georeferencing accurate to 50 centimetres. With prompt stocks scarce and the deadline nearing, verified, documented lots are where scarcity and regulation meet. Rockmart delivers EUDR-ready coffee with the full documentation package from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
After a move like this, the risk cut both ways. Watch whether rain keeps stalling the harvest (Safras), the certified-stock line for further draws, and fund positioning — with shorts freshly squeezed, a return of dry weather and faster picking could just as quickly deflate the premium. The one constant was the thin front end, which left the tape fast in both directions.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is general market commentary for information only — not individualized investment, trading, legal or tax advice, and not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any futures, option, security or commodity. Rockmart Holdings is a physical green-coffee broker and is not registered as a CTA, CPO, FCM, IB or investment adviser with the CFTC, NFA or SEC. Figures are drawn from third-party sources believed reliable but not guaranteed (StoneX, Safras & Mercado, Cecafé, Conab); prices and opinions are as of the date shown and may change without notice. Trading futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results — do your own due diligence and consult your own licensed advisers before acting. This report is market information, not trading advice.