Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 29 · Monday, July 13, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
The week in one paragraph
Coffee just delivered one of its most violent weeks in a generation. Arabica on ICE surged roughly 16% over the week — its largest weekly gain since 2000 — punching back above US$3.50/lb for the first time since January before settling near US$3.40/lb (about 340 cents/lb). Three forces converged: rain that has stalled Brazil’s harvest, ICE certified stocks grinding down to a 2.25-year low of ~346,419 bags, and a wave of short-covering after managed funds flipped to a net-short position for the first time since late 2023. For buyers, the takeaway is unchanged but sharper: fresh 26/27 coffee is arriving later than usual, prompt differentials are firm, and the flat-price tape is dangerous to chase.
Harvest: rain is the story, again
Brazil’s 26/27 harvest reached 52% complete as of July 1, still behind last year’s 60% and the five-year average of 55%. The gap is widest in the arabica belt: in Southern Minas Gerais, Brazil’s single most important growing region, only about 30% of the crop was in by mid-season versus 52% a year earlier. Persistent rainfall through peak harvest has slowed picking and drying and increased the count of fallen cherries — a quality risk for natural preparations. More rain is forecast across much of Brazil into mid-July. On frost: no cold snap severe enough to threaten trees has materialized, and the June–August risk window is assessed as lower this winter, but any Argentine cold front can move New York violently, so we watch it daily.
26/27 crop outlook
- Arabica: Conab sees roughly 45.7 million bags and USDA’s June estimate is higher at 47.5 million bags (+25% year on year) — a strong on-year rebound either way, even as rain reshapes the timing of that supply.
- Conilon / robusta: estimated near 22–24.4 million bags depending on source — USDA pegs robusta at 24.4M, down slightly year on year, while Conab-linked reads point to a fresh conilon record around 22.1M (+6.4%). Historically high, and the direction matters for blenders.
- Total Brazil: tracking toward a record ~65–70 million bags — the bearish anchor beneath a market that is nonetheless trading on nearby tightness, not the annual balance.
Exports & logistics
Brazil shipped 11.6 million bags January–April, down 16.1% year on year, with export revenue off double digits on the lower-volume months. The Port of Santos handled roughly 80% of coffee shipments in the first half of 2026 — concentration that continues to reward exporters who hold alternatives when Santos berths back up. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready coffee via Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, which matters most for conilon flows out of Espírito Santo and for keeping prompt nominations on schedule when one port congests.
EUDR corner
The enforcement clock is unchanged: December 30, 2026 for large and medium operators; June 30, 2027 for small and micro. The European Commission relaunched its Information System in June 2026 and continues rolling out functionality over the summer, following the May 4 simplification package. Do not read prior delays as relief — supply-chain mapping takes 6–18 months, so any coffee contracted for H2 2026 delivery into Europe should already carry farm-level geolocation and due-diligence documentation. All Rockmart supply ships EUDR-ready, with geodata and deforestation due diligence included; settle who carries the compliance cost before you fix differentials.
The week ahead
Watch: harvest progress against the mid-July rain forecast in Minas; whether ICE certified stocks keep drawing toward fresh multi-year lows; the fund position, where continued short-covering could extend the rally as fast as fresh selling could unwind it; and USD/BRL near R$5.11 — a firm real discourages producer selling and lends the market a bullish undertone. After a 16% week, expect two-way volatility; size orders accordingly.
Prepared by the Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is market information, not trading advice.