Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 34 · Monday, August 17, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
The tape spent Week 34 doing what it has done all season — probing higher on tight supply, then handing it back to profit-taking. ICE arabica (KC) spiked above 335 cents/lb intraday on August 10 before fading to close near 321 cents/lb by August 17, leaving the front month softer on the week and down roughly 4% over the trailing 30 days. The floor was the same structural tightness that has defined 2026: certified ICE arabica stocks drained to about 244,000 bags, their lowest in roughly two and a half years and a fraction of a year ago. Brazil’s harvest was finally within sight of the finish but still running behind, London robusta held firm near US$3,780/t, and a weaker real (USD/BRL ~5.22) encouraged Brazilian selling into the board.
Tight supply, quick fades
The week showed how a starved front end trades: rallies on any supply scare, then fades as funds bank profits into the record-crop story. Fundamentally the crop is a record — Conab official 66.7M bags (+18%), StoneX higher at 75.3M — but with certified stocks at multi-year lows and the curve inverted, nearby coffee stayed scarce and every close was a tug-of-war. The harvest’s lag mattered less for volume than for timing and quality: the later the crop reached grading, the longer visible inventory stayed thin. Until that changed, the market kept a bid it did not fully trust.
26/27 crop outlook
- Record crop, running late. Conab official 66.7M bags (conilon 20.9M); StoneX higher at 75.3M.
- Balance loosening. StoneX sees the 2026 global market moving toward surplus as Brazil and Vietnam expand.
- Harvest lag. Safras & Mercado had the crop behind the five-year pace, delaying when new coffee would reach the exchange.
- Quality mix softer. Winter rains raised the share of lower-grade coffee, firming fine-cup premiums (Safras).
Exports & logistics
Cecafé data showed Brazil shipping 3.0 million bags in July, up 9.9% year on year, as new-crop volume started to move even with the harvest behind schedule. The Port of Santos worked peak-season flows, with vessel scheduling and container availability the practical bottlenecks. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, giving buyers redundancy across all three of Brazil’s coffee gateways.
EUDR corner
The deadline moved closer. The EU Deforestation Regulation applies from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for small and micro enterprises; coffee sold into or exported from the EU must be proven deforestation-free after 31 December 2020, with plot-level geolocation and a due-diligence statement. Brazil’s exposure is large — the EU took 43.8% of Brazilian coffee exports in 2025 (17.56 million bags, ~US$7.1 billion, per Cecafé) — and Cecafé’s traceability platform is rolling out georeferencing accurate to 50 centimetres. With certified stocks at multi-year lows and the deadline nearing, verified, documented lots are where scarcity and regulation meet. Rockmart delivers EUDR-ready coffee with the full documentation package from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
Expect more of the same two-way tape until new-crop coffee reaches grading. Watch the certified-stock line for any turn, the pace of the Brazilian harvest into its final stretch (Safras), and the real — a weaker BRL keeps producers selling and caps rallies, while any supply or weather scare can still snap the market higher given how thin the front end is.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is general market commentary for information only — not individualized investment, trading, legal or tax advice, and not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any futures, option, security or commodity. Rockmart Holdings is a physical green-coffee broker and is not registered as a CTA, CPO, FCM, IB or investment adviser with the CFTC, NFA or SEC. Figures are drawn from third-party sources believed reliable but not guaranteed (StoneX, Safras & Mercado, Cecafé, Conab); prices and opinions are as of the date shown and may change without notice. Trading futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results — do your own due diligence and consult your own licensed advisers before acting. This report is market information, not trading advice.