Rockmart Coffee Market Intelligence · Week 35 · Monday, August 24, 2026 · Santos / Panama City
By Thiago Martins
The week in one paragraph
Arabica held its ground near multi-month highs even as Brazil’s record harvest all but wrapped up. Front-month ICE arabica (KC) settled around 324 cents/lb, with the December contract near 314 cents/lb — broadly flat on the week after testing three-week highs early on. The bullish anchor was unchanged: certified ICE stocks sat at roughly 231,000 bags, their lowest since late 2023, while a 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee kept scrambling trade flows. London robusta stayed on the back foot on expectations of fresh Asian supply. A record crop was meeting a market that still could not rebuild visible inventory — and that tension kept arabica firm.
Record crop, unrebuilt inventory
The week crystallised the market’s core disconnect. Fundamentally the crop is a record — Conab official 66.7M bags (+18%), StoneX higher at 75.3M, with the global balance set to loosen. But none of that had reached the exchange: certified stocks stayed near multi-year lows, the curve stayed inverted, and the U.S. tariff added a fresh distortion, rerouting Brazilian coffee and tightening certain prompt positions further. Speculators had little incentive to press the short into so thin a front end. The probability of change was building — the new crop would eventually reach grading — but until it did, scarcity, not the surplus, set the price.
26/27 crop outlook
- Record crop wrapping. Conab official 66.7M bags (conilon 20.9M); StoneX higher at 75.3M.
- Balance loosening. StoneX sees the 2026 global market moving toward surplus as Brazil and Vietnam expand.
- Tariff distortion. The 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee kept rerouting flows and complicating prompt supply.
- Quality mix softer. Safras & Mercado flagged winter rains raising the share of lower-grade coffee, firming fine-cup premiums.
Exports & logistics
The latest Cecafé data showed Brazil shipping 3.0 million bags in July, up 9.9% year on year, as new-crop volume started to move despite the late harvest — even as the U.S. tariff pushed some volume toward other destinations. The Port of Santos worked peak-season flows, with vessel scheduling and container availability the practical bottlenecks. Rockmart ships EUDR-ready green coffee from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro, giving buyers redundancy across all three of Brazil’s coffee gateways.
EUDR corner
The deadline drew nearer. The EU Deforestation Regulation applies from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for small and micro enterprises; coffee sold into or exported from the EU must be proven deforestation-free after 31 December 2020, with plot-level geolocation and a due-diligence statement. Brazil’s exposure is large — the EU took 43.8% of Brazilian coffee exports in 2025 (17.56 million bags, ~US$7.1 billion, per Cecafé) — and Cecafé’s traceability platform is rolling out georeferencing accurate to 50 centimetres. With the U.S. tariff already redirecting trade, EUDR readiness makes the EU channel the more dependable outlet. Rockmart delivers EUDR-ready coffee with the full documentation package from Santos, Vitória and Rio de Janeiro.
The week ahead
The set-up stayed firm-but-fragile: record-crop selling versus a starved front end and tariff noise. Watch the certified-stock line for stabilisation as new-crop coffee reaches grading, the first Brazilian flowering rains (the main bull risk), and any tariff headlines. A firmer real would slow producer selling; a dry turn into flowering would reawaken the bulls.
Prepared by Thiago Martins, Rockmart trading desk. For contract structures (spot, forward, EFP, multi-year) or the full EUDR documentation package, talk to us. This report is general market commentary for information only — not individualized investment, trading, legal or tax advice, and not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any futures, option, security or commodity. Rockmart Holdings is a physical green-coffee broker and is not registered as a CTA, CPO, FCM, IB or investment adviser with the CFTC, NFA or SEC. Figures are drawn from third-party sources believed reliable but not guaranteed (StoneX, Safras & Mercado, Cecafé, Conab); prices and opinions are as of the date shown and may change without notice. Trading futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results — do your own due diligence and consult your own licensed advisers before acting. This report is market information, not trading advice.