Market Intelligence

Brazil's record 2026/27 harvest all but wraps up, yet ICE certified stocks near a late-2023 low and a 50% U.S. tariff keep arabica firm around 324 cents/lb. Conab sees a record 66.7M-bag crop; July exports rose 9.9% as robusta surged and arabica hit its weakest July since 2018.

ICE certified arabica stocks drained to roughly 244,000 bags — a two-and-a-half-year low — as Brazil closed in on the end of a late 2026/27 harvest (90% done vs 97% a year ago), keeping KC firm near 321 cents/lb even as profit-taking cooled a midweek spike above 335.

Arabica steadies near US$3.08-3.12/lb as ICE certified stocks bleed to a two-year low (~264k bags) and Brazil's late 26/27 harvest finally enters its final stretch. A firmer real (R$5.08) keeps producers sidelined, robusta exports hit a record, and EUDR enforcement counts down to Dec 30, 2026.

ICE certified arabica stocks fell to 274,168 bags — the lowest since February 2024 — as Brazil's 2026/27 harvest ran well behind schedule, keeping KC firm near 316 cents/lb even against a record 66.7-million-bag CONAB crop forecast.

Arabica eases toward 310 c/lb as the frost scare deflates, but ICE certified stocks at a 2-year low near 316,000 bags keep the floor firm. Harvest lags at 52%, Santos jams, and the EUDR clock ticks toward 30 December 2026.

Arabica snaps a six-week rally near 315 c/lb even as ICE certified stocks fall to 344,269 bags; Brazil's harvest lags at 64%, Santos congestion bites, and a new 25% US tariff on Brazilian imports lands July 22.

Arabica surged ~16% — its biggest weekly gain since 2000 — back above US$3.50/lb as rain slows Brazil's harvest to 52% and ICE certified stocks fall to a 2.25-year low near 346,000 bags. USD/BRL near R$5.11. EUDR enforcement holds at Dec 30, 2026.

Arabica near March highs as ICE certified stocks hit a 20-month low and rain slows Brazil’s harvest to 44%. Conab sees 45.7M bags of arabica for 26/27. EUDR enforcement reset to Dec 2026 — what it means for your Q3 nominations.